Your electric bill went up. Gas costs more than it did when President Trump took office. And a new report says the worst is still ahead.
Trump’s energy policies will cost families about $6,500 extra for energy between 2026 and 2040. That's the finding of a new analysis from Energy Innovation, a San Francisco think tank that studies energy and climate policy.
Spectrum News first reported on the study, which came out Oct. 1.
Add up the numbers, and American households will pay $920 billion more for energy over those 15 years. In 2035 alone, the average family will pay about $640 extra.
What the report found
Energy Innovation used a computer model called the Energy Policy Simulator to figure out what Trump’s energy policies will cost families over the next 15 years. Americans in each of the 48 mainland states will have higher energy costs.(Alaska and Hawaii weren't part of the study.)
Here's the damage:
- Higher gas prices: 54 cents more per gallon in 2035 and 93 cents more in 2040. That's on top of the price spike from the Iran war.
- Fewer jobs: about 390,000 jobs lost every year, on average.
- A weaker economy: $1.3 trillion in lost economic growth across the states.
- Dirtier air: about 37,000 more people dying early, plus $72 billion in added health care costs. (Kids already breathe some of the worst of it.)
- More climate pollution: 9.3 billion tons of greenhouse gases through 2040.
The authors say their numbers are probably low. They didn't fully count the cost of tariffs.
How cutting clean energy raises your bills
It sounds backward. How does cutting programs make things cost more?
It's basic supply and demand. When fewer new power sources are built, there's less electricity to go around, so prices go up. When fewer people can afford electric cars, more people are stuck buying gas at whatever price the oil market sets.
With the war in Iran choking oil shipments, that price is high.
The report looked at seven big changes Trump and Congress made since January 2025:
- The "One Big Beautiful Bill." Trump's 2025 tax law ended tax credits for electric cars and home solar panels. It also phased out credits for wind and solar farms.
- Power plant rollbacks. The EPA scrapped limits on climate pollution, mercury, and toxic wastewater from power plants. Kentucky is already seeing what that looks like.
- The Endangerment Finding. In February, the EPA repealed its 2009 finding that greenhouse gases put public health at risk. That also wiped out federal climate pollution limits for cars and trucks.
- State car rules. Congress voted to cancel stricter car pollution rules that California and other states had adopted.
- Blocking wind and solar. The administration has made it harder to build new wind and solar projects, especially offshore wind.
- Hydrogen hubs. The Energy Department canceled funding for clean hydrogen hubs and made it easier for hydrogen made from natural gas to get a tax break.
- Solar for All. The EPA killed a $7 billion program that helped low-income families put solar panels on their homes.
Families are already paying more
You don't have to wait until 2040 to feel it.
Gas cost about $3.10 a gallon when Trump took office. It now averages about $4.40, according to AAA. Home electricity rates rose 18% from January 2025 through April 2026, based on federal data analyzed by 24/7 Wall St.
Democrats on Congress's Joint Economic Committee found in September that the average family has spent $4,200 more on everyday costs since Trump took office. That includes about $699 more on gas since the Iran war began and $216 more on electricity.
Trump promised the opposite. On the campaign trail, he said again and again that he would "cut your energy prices in half within 12 months." He even made that pitch at an August 2024 rally in York, Pennsylvania.
The White House blames Biden, but it’s Trump’s energy policies
White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told Spectrum that Trump is "aggressively unleashing reliable energy sources like coal and natural gas." She blamed Joe Biden and Democrats for damaging the power grid.
Rogers also went after Energy Innovation. She said the group isn't truly nonpartisan because its founder donates to Democrats and its CEO once worked for Biden.
Readers should know who is behind the numbers. But that goes both ways.
To defend Trump's record, Rogers pointed to data from the Institute for Energy Research. It claims blue states pay more for power because of clean energy rules. That group has taken money from ExxonMobil, the American Petroleum Institute, coal company Peabody Energy, and Koch family foundations, according to InfluenceWatch, a project of the conservative Capital Research Center.
Meanwhile, Energy Innovation's own research from May found that states that invested in clean energy have seen steadier electricity rates.
Trump likes to mock wind power. He has called countries with windmills "losers," even though the U.S. ranks second in the world for wind energy. This is also the same administration that deleted more than 1,600 pages of energy-saving tips during a record heat wave.
What states can do
Energy Innovation says states can soften the blow until federal policy changes. The report suggests that states:
- Help wind and solar projects get built in time to claim tax credits before they run out.
- Cut red tape so homes and businesses can install solar and other clean energy.
- Keep electric car sales and charging stations growing.
- Offer incentives for efficient electric heating and cooling in homes, buildings, and factories.
- Bring in new clean energy factories.
There's some good news, too. In September, two federal judges ruled that the EPA broke the law when it canceled Solar for All. That $7 billion is expected to start flowing again.
Trump promised to cut your energy bills in half. His policies are on track to add $6,500 to them instead.
