The recent surge in ICE arrests is having far-reaching consequences that extend well beyond immigration courts and detention centers. A new analysis shows that ramped-up enforcement is destabilizing America’s fragile child care workforce, rippling outward to impact millions of working parents, particularly mothers with young children.
A Workforce Heavily Reliant on Immigrant Labor
Child care in the United States depends heavily on immigrant labor. Roughly one in five child care workers is foreign-born, making them a foundational part of the caregiving economy that allows parents to work.
However, policies and enforcement strategies that increase ICE arrests and deportations have made these workers vulnerable to detention or removing themselves from the workforce.
This disruption has diminished the number of available caregivers and, as a result, left many families scrambling for solutions.
The Data on ICE Arrests and Workforce Declines
A comprehensive report by the Better Life Lab—a policy think tank at New America—documents how ICE arrests surged sharply between late 2024 and mid-2025. During that period, arrest rates more than tripled, and the number of immigrants employed in child care dropped significantly.
Here’s how the data breaks down:
- Foreign-born workers: There were an estimated 39,000 fewer immigrant child care workers between early 2025 and the same period a year earlier.
- Mothers in the labor force: The drop in child care availability corresponded with roughly 77,000 fewer U.S. mothers of preschool-aged children in paid employment during that same timeframe.
These numbers suggest a direct link between enforcement intensity and workforce participation: when caregivers stop showing up due to fear of ICE arrests, parents—especially women—are left with few child care options and often no choice but to leave their jobs.
Chilling Effects on Both Immigrant and U.S.-Born Workers
The consequences of ICE arrests extend beyond foreign-born adults. Even some U.S.-born workers, particularly Latina and Hispanic caregivers, report stepping away from work out of fear or uncertainty around enforcement actions in their communities.
Beyond workforce declines, there’s a broader “chilling effect” taking place. With immigration enforcement visible in neighborhoods, day care centers, and other community settings once deemed sensitive, caregivers without secure documentation or clear authorization worry about detention.
This anxiety has led many to reduce hours, shift to informal work, or stop working altogether.
Some are even leaving the country voluntarily, simply to avoid the risk of being arrested and separated from family, a trend highlighted in recent immigrant family stories nationwide.
What This Means for Working Parents
For parents who rely on regular child care to remain in the workforce, the repercussions of ICE arrests are stark:
- Fewer day care spots are available, as formal centers struggle to keep staff.
- More unpredictable care arrangements, such as informal babysitting, become the only option for many.
- Women’s labor participation, particularly among mothers of young children, declines as stable care becomes scarcer.
Experts emphasize that child care is not just a “family issue” but a core economic driver. When parents—especially mothers—are forced out of the workforce due to lack of care, the broader economy feels the impact. Businesses lose productivity, talent retention worsens, and family incomes shrink.
A Policy Crossroads
The situation presents policymakers with a complex trade-off: while proponents of strict immigration enforcement argue that it protects jobs for native workers, the evidence suggests that ICE arrests can actually reduce employment opportunities by eroding the very support systems that enable parents to work.
State and federal efforts to strengthen child care supply—through subsidies, workforce investment, or protections for immigrant caregivers—may be needed to stabilize the sector and help families remain employed.
Already, advocates argue that reshaping immigration enforcement priorities could mitigate harm to essential labor markets without sacrificing public safety.
As enforcement actions continue through 2026 and beyond, the link between ICE arrests and workforce participation remains a topic of study and debate among economists, policymakers, and families.
Strengthening the child care workforce through thoughtful policy could bolster both economic growth and family well-being in an era defined by shifting labor dynamics and mass deportation.
